\\M0BASL30;\M1BASI30;\.  \F0\; Dear letter writer:

\J      In connection  with the article  that appeared in  the \F1San
Francisco Chronicle\F0,  I have received  quite a number  of letters.
Instead  of answering  them  individually, I  have decided  to  try a
general answer, and I hope it gives some information relative  to the
questions and issues you have raised.

        The  largest  area  of concern  expressed  was  the potential
displacement  of human  beings by  computer programs.   This  has two
aspects.

        The first concerns the further development of  the industrial
robot which will do some  jobs in factories now done by  humans.  The
ones  that  have  been  installed so  far  (all  having  very limited
capabilities) have been well accepted, because they have  been mainly
used to  do dangerous jobs  like putting parts  in punch  presses and
welding.    In  the   future,  the   displacement  will   be  larger.
Incidentally, the  main gain from  automatic manufacture  by flexible
machines  will  be  to  get  the  prices  of  mass   production  with
individuality  of  design.  Thus  we  can hope  to  have individually
designed clothes and furniture at mass production prices.

        However, the impact of  the introduction of such  machines on
society will be similar  in quality to the increases  in productivity
that have  already occurred.  Namely,  there is some  displacement of
labor, but since  we still want more  products and more  leisure, the
general economic mechanism keeps  the level of employment  about what
it always was.   Thus, in spite  of manyfold increases  in industrial
productivity since 1900, the rate of unemployment is slightly smaller
than it was then.

        The  long  term  possibilities  of   artificial  intelligence
affecting human life  are much larger.  When  and if we  get computer
programs more  capable of  problem solving  than humans,  even people
like scientists and  writers who live  by their creativity  will have
problems.   At  present,  we  are  so  far  from  having  high  level
artificial intelligence that we  don't know much about what  it would
be  like to  have it.   The most  immediate use  for it  would  be to
determine  the consequences  of the  various policies  that  might be
adopted  governing  its  use  and  their  effects  on   people.   The
possibilities include foregoing it, allowing its competitive use, and
in some sense merging  human and artificial intelligence.   After one
thinks  about it  for a  while,  one sees  that there  are  many more
possibilities  than  we  can  now  predict.   Therefore,  I  advocate
continuing research  and delaying  any kind of  policy until  we know
much more.



        Some  correspondents have  said that  artificial intelligence
will be misused just as other discoveries have been misused.  Whether
one  is  optimistic or  pessimistic  about the  future  of technology
depends partly on how one reads the past.  There is a view  that says
we were all better off before we had cars, etc., and that the quality
of human life in America has decreased.  Well, we have more smog than
we used to, but now we are trying to get rid of it.  In my  own view,
the  quality of  life has  improved  on the  whole, and  I  think the
contrary view has some of the elements of an intellectual  fad rather
than being the result of an unbiased comparison.  The reason for this
opinion is that it is possible to move to more primitive areas in the
U.S., and very few of those who complain back up their  statements by
moving.   In fact,  there  is a  large continued  migration  from the
places  in  the  world  with  low  technology  to  those  with higher
technology.  This perception of what has happened in the past is part
of the basis for my optimism about the future.

        A few people have written saying that they know how to make a
large advance in artificial  intelligence.  My advice is to  write up
their ideas  very carefully, try  them out on  their friends,  try to
publish  them  in  scientific  journals,  and  to  attend  scientific
meetings on the subject.   A conviction of understanding  the subject
without having  written down  the details  is usually  deceptive.  At
least I have found it so.  For students, there is the  possibility of
majoring in computer science  either as an undergraduate  or graduate
student in college.

        Well,  I hope  this answers  some of  the questions  you have
raised,  and moreover,  I  am enclosing  some  additional descriptive
material about  artificial intelligence  and the  Stanford Artificial
Intelligence Laboratory.\.

                                                Sincerely yours,

                                                John McCarthy